UCF
W-L: ( 4- 8) PR = 91.5351Schedule/Results All Games
Date Opponent Conf/State (W-L, PR) Score 829 H New Hampshire 57- 3 907 H SHouston St CUSA ( 9- 3, 89.8) 45-14 914 A TCU B12 ( 8- 4, 94.7) 35-34 928 H Colorado B12 ( 9- 3, 95.8) 21-48 1005 A Florida SEC ( 7- 5, 94.8) 13-24 1012 H Cincinnati B12 ( 5- 7, 93.2) 13-19 1019 A Iowa St B12 (10- 3, 95.9) 35-38 1026 H BYU B12 (10- 2, 95.9) 24-37 1102 H Arizona B12 ( 4- 8, 91.4) 56-12 1109 A Arizona St B12 (11- 2, 96.3) 31-35 1123 A We Virginia B12 ( 6- 6, 93.4) 21-31 1129 H Utah B12 ( 5- 7, 92.7) 14-28
PREDICTION LIST
-------------------------------------
|Real = actual goal margin |
|Pred = predicted goal margin |
|+ = slightly above prediction |
|++ = above prediction |
|+++ = well above prediction |
|- = slightly below prediction |
|-- = below prediction |
|--- = well below prediction |
|Goals* = Goals over (+) under (-) |
| prediction. N/A when ten |
| goal limit is exceeded |
|n/a = Outside division |
-------------------------------------
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals*
907 H SHouston St 45-14 31 3 + 2.40
914 A TCU 35-34 1 -4 ++ 5.05
928 H Colorado 21-48 -27 -3 -1.67
1005 A Florida 13-24 -11 -4 -0.84
1012 H Cincinnati 13-19 -6 -1 -- -4.28
1019 A Iowa St 35-38 -3 -5 + 2.00
1026 H BYU 24-37 -13 -3 -1.53
1102 H Arizona 56-12 44 1 + 3.92
1109 A Arizona St 31-35 -4 -6 1.00
1123 A We Virginia 21-31 -10 -3 - -2.26
1129 H Utah 14-28 -14 0 -- -4.73
|
UNDER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 1012 H Cincinnati 13-19 -6 -1 -- -4.28 1129 H Utah 14-28 -14 0 -- -4.73 1123 A We Virginia 21-31 -10 -3 - -2.26 |
OVER-ACHIEVED GAMES
Date Opponent Score Real Pred +/- Goals* 914 A TCU 35-34 1 -4 ++ 5.05 907 H SHouston St 45-14 31 3 + 2.40 1019 A Iowa St 35-38 -3 -5 + 2.00 1102 H Arizona 56-12 44 1 + 3.92 |
UCF Evaluation
The team that earns the point in the pair-wise comparison is based on three criteria:
first is head-to-head, the winner gets the point, however, if they did not play each
other, than it considers w-l versus common opponents. If their records are tied or they
have no common opponents, than the tie-breaker becomes the better power rating.
The Common Opponent Point list in the table below has the record of the winner followed by the
record of the loser for all common opponents
| Opponent | Who Gets the Point? | Head-2-Head Point |
Common Opponent Point |
Power Rating Point |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Col ` | Boston Col ` | Boston Col ` | ||
| California | California | California | ||
| Clemson | Clemson | Clemson | ||
| Duke | Duke | Duke | ||
| Florida St | UCF | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | UCF | |
| Georgia Tech | Georgia Tech | Georgia Tech | ||
| Louisville | Louisville | Louisville | ||
| Miami | Miami | insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) | Miami | |
| UNC | UNC | UNC | ||
| NC St | NC St | NC St | ||
| Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh 2- 0 vs 0- 2 | ||
| SMU | SMU | tied - ( 1- 1) ( 1- 1) | SMU | |
| Stanford | UCF | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | UCF | |
| Syracuse | Syracuse | Syracuse | ||
| Virginia | Virginia | Virginia | ||
| Va Tech | Va Tech | Va Tech | ||
| Wake Forest | UCF | UCF | ||
| Army | Army | Army | ||
| Charlotte | UCF | UCF | ||
| Ea Carolina | UCF | UCF | ||
| Fla Atlantic | UCF | UCF | ||
| Memphis | Memphis | Memphis | ||
| Navy | Navy | Navy | ||
| No Texas | UCF | UCF | ||
| Rice | UCF | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | UCF | |
| So Florida | UCF | UCF | ||
| Temple | UCF | UCF | ||
| Tulane | Tulane | Tulane | ||
| Tulsa | UCF | UCF | ||
| UAB | UCF | UCF | ||
| UTSA | UCF | UCF | ||
| Arizona | UCF | UCF | ||
| Arizona St | Arizona St | Arizona St | ||
| BYU | BYU | BYU | ||
| Baylor | Baylor | insuffient: ( 1- 5)( 2- 4) | Baylor | |
| Cincinnati | Cincinnati | Cincinnati | ||
| Colorado | Colorado | Colorado | ||
| Houston | Houston | tied - ( 2- 4) ( 2- 4) | Houston | |
| Iowa St | Iowa St | Iowa St | ||
| Kansas | Kansas | Kansas 3- 3 vs 1- 5 | ||
| Kansas St | Kansas St | Kansas St 4- 3 vs 1- 6 | ||
| Oklahoma St | UCF | insuffient: ( 1- 5)( 0- 6) | UCF | |
| TCU | UCF | UCF | ||
| Texas Tech | Texas Tech | Texas Tech 5- 2 vs 2- 5 | ||
| Utah | Utah | Utah | ||
| We Virginia | We Virginia | We Virginia | ||
| Illinois | Illinois | Illinois | ||
| Indiana | Indiana | Indiana | ||
| Iowa | Iowa | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | Iowa | |
| Maryland | UCF | UCF | ||
| Michigan | Michigan | Michigan | ||
| Michigan St | Michigan St | Michigan St | ||
| Minnesota | Minnesota | Minnesota | ||
| Nebraska | Nebraska | insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) | Nebraska | |
| Northwestern | Northwestern | Northwestern | ||
| Ohio St | Ohio St | Ohio St | ||
| Oregon | Oregon | Oregon | ||
| Penn St | Penn St | insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) | Penn St | |
| Purdue | UCF | UCF | ||
| Rutgers | Rutgers | Rutgers | ||
| UCLA | UCLA | UCLA | ||
| USC | USC | USC | ||
| Washington | Washington | Washington | ||
| Wisconsin | Wisconsin | Wisconsin | ||
| Florida Intl | UCF | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | UCF | |
| Jacksonv. St | UCF | tied - ( 1- 0) ( 1- 0) | UCF | |
| Kennesaw St | UCF | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | UCF | |
| Liberty | UCF | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | UCF | |
| La Tech | UCF | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | UCF | |
| Middle Tenn | UCF | UCF | ||
| NM St | UCF | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | UCF | |
| SHouston St | UCF | UCF | ||
| UTEP | UCF | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | UCF | |
| We Kentucky | UCF | tied - ( 1- 0) ( 1- 0) | UCF | |
| UMass | UCF | UCF | ||
| Notre Dame | Notre Dame | Notre Dame | ||
| UConn | UCF | UCF | ||
| Akron | UCF | UCF | ||
| Ball St | UCF | UCF | ||
| Bowl. Green | UCF | UCF | ||
| Buffalo | UCF | UCF | ||
| Cen Michigan | UCF | UCF | ||
| Ea Michigan | UCF | UCF | ||
| Kent State | UCF | UCF | ||
| MiamiOH | UCF | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | UCF | |
| No Illinois | UCF | UCF | ||
| Ohio | UCF | UCF | ||
| Toledo | UCF | UCF | ||
| We Michigan | UCF | UCF | ||
| Air Force | UCF | UCF | ||
| Boise State | Boise State | Boise State | ||
| Colorado St | Colorado St | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | Colorado St | |
| Fresno St | UCF | UCF | ||
| Hawaii | UCF | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | UCF | |
| Nevada | UCF | UCF | ||
| New Mexico | UCF | insuffient: ( 1- 0)( 0- 1) | UCF | |
| San Diego St | UCF | UCF | ||
| San Jose St | San Jose St | San Jose St | ||
| UNLV | UNLV | UNLV | ||
| Utah St | UCF | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | UCF | |
| Wyoming | UCF | tied - ( 0- 2) ( 0- 2) | UCF | |
| Oregon St | UCF | UCF | ||
| Wash St | Wash St | Wash St | ||
| Alabama | Alabama | Alabama | ||
| Arkansas | Arkansas | Arkansas | ||
| Auburn | UCF | UCF | ||
| Florida | Florida | Florida | ||
| Georgia | Georgia | insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) | Georgia | |
| Kentucky | Kentucky | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | Kentucky | |
| LSU | LSU | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | LSU | |
| Missouri | Missouri | Missouri | ||
| Miss St | UCF | tied - ( 0- 2) ( 0- 2) | UCF | |
| Oklahoma | Oklahoma | Oklahoma | ||
| Ole Miss | Ole Miss | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | Ole Miss | |
| So Carolina | So Carolina | So Carolina | ||
| Tennessee | Tennessee | insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) | Tennessee | |
| Texas | Texas | insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) | Texas | |
| Texas A&M | Texas A&M | insuffient: ( 0- 1)( 1- 0) | Texas A&M | |
| Vanderbilt | Vanderbilt | Vanderbilt | ||
| App St | UCF | UCF | ||
| Arkansas State | UCF | tied - ( 0- 1) ( 0- 1) | UCF | |
| Coastal Car | UCF | UCF | ||
| Georgia So | Georgia So | Georgia So | ||
| Georgia St | UCF | UCF | ||
| J Madison | J Madison | J Madison | ||
| Louisiana | Louisiana | Louisiana | ||
| Marshall | Marshall | Marshall | ||
| Old Dominion | UCF | UCF | ||
| So Miss | UCF | UCF | ||
| So Alabama | UCF | UCF | ||
| Texas State | UCF | insuffient: ( 1- 1)( 0- 2) | UCF | |
| Troy | UCF | UCF | ||
| La-Monroe | UCF | UCF |
PowerWise = 63
division Games OnlyAverage number of games used in Games Correction = 12.10
Date Opponent (W-L PR) SCORE SAFE SAFE Home No Games SCI
Loss Win Field Correction Points
SLP SWP Advantage Factor
0 H SHouston St ( 9- 3, 89.8) 45-14 -10.06 8.20 -0.91 1.10 8.02
0 A TCU ( 8- 4, 94.7) 35-34 -5.22 13.03 0.91 1.10 15.34
0 H Colorado ( 9- 3, 95.8) 21-48 -4.13 14.13 -0.91 1.10 -5.54
0 A Florida ( 7- 5, 94.8) 13-24 -5.11 13.15 0.91 1.10 -4.63
0 H Cincinnati ( 5- 7, 93.2) 13-19 -6.73 11.52 -0.91 1.10 -8.41
0 A Iowa St (10- 3, 95.9) 35-38 -3.95 14.30 0.91 1.10 -3.35
0 H BYU (10- 2, 95.9) 24-37 -3.99 14.27 -0.91 1.10 -5.39
0 H Arizona ( 4- 8, 91.4) 56-12 -8.54 9.72 -0.91 1.10 9.70
0 A Arizona St (11- 2, 96.3) 31-35 -3.64 14.61 0.91 1.10 -3.01
0 A We Virginia ( 6- 6, 93.4) 21-31 -6.53 11.72 0.91 1.10 -6.19
0 H Utah ( 5- 7, 92.7) 14-28 -7.19 11.07 -0.91 1.10 -8.91
------
-12.37
|
winning pts = 33.0548 losing points = -45.4283
SCI ={(SLP or SLW) +/- home-field advantage} * Game Correction.
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| (W-L PR) = Won-loss record and power rating |
| SCORE = game score |
| SAFE Loss (SLP) = Points deducted for losing to the opponent |
| SAFE Win (SWP) = Points awarded for defeating the opponent |
| Home-field Advantage = goals deducted/awarded for site |
| No games correction = normalzation based on a ~16 game schedule |
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